Overview:
Vice President Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle as polling data shows her “bounce” following the Democratic National Convention has faded. With voters expressing concerns about her policies and leadership, Harris is struggling to position herself as the candidate of change, while former President Donald Trump maintains a lead in critical areas ahead of the upcoming debate.
Why It Matters:
This polling reflects voter dissatisfaction with current leadership and underscores the importance of clear, decisive policy positions in shaping the future of the nation.
Who It Impacts:
This impacts voters who are seeking substantial change in leadership and policy direction, particularly those undecided or dissatisfied with the current administration.
Vice President Kamala Harris has seen any boost she may have received from last month’s Democratic National Convention evaporate, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College. Taken between September 3 and 6, the poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin, 48% to 47%. This lack of momentum for Harris is a troubling sign as she attempts to position herself as a change agent while distancing herself from the Biden administration’s policies.
Political analyst Josh Kraushaar noted the quick disappearance of the Harris bump, quoting the accompanying New York Times article: “The Harris bounce, blown.” Polling data reveals that public opinion remains largely unchanged from a similar poll taken in late July, right after President Biden announced he would not be seeking re-election. Harris’s challenge is compounded by the fact that a significant portion of voters feel they do not know enough about her policy positions to make an informed decision.
The Harris bounce, blown:
NEW NYT/Siena poll:
Trump 48
Harris 47The results are "largely unchanged from a Times/Siena poll taken in late July just after President Biden dropped his re-election bid."https://t.co/GU2iUWDVsB
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 8, 2024
The poll underscores a critical issue for Harris: 28% of likely voters say they need to know more about her stance on key issues before they can commit to supporting her, compared to just 9% for Trump. Furthermore, among the undecided voters, two-thirds expressed a desire for more clarity on Harris’s policies before casting their vote. This uncertainty presents a hurdle for Harris as she prepares for her upcoming debate against Trump on ABC News, where her ability to differentiate herself from both the Biden administration and Trump will be crucial.
Harris’s attempt to portray herself as the candidate of change has struggled to resonate with voters. More than 60% of likely voters in the poll expressed the belief that the next president should bring a significant shift from President Biden, but only 25% see Harris as capable of delivering that change. In contrast, 53% believe Trump represents that needed departure from current policies. This presents a considerable challenge for Harris as she tries to persuade voters that she is the candidate who can move the country in a new direction.
Missed opportunity of the convention — more policy substance — and reassure voters she doesn't hold the progressive positions of recent vintage:
"28% of likely voters said they felt they needed to know more about Harris, while only 9% said they needed to know more about…
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 8, 2024
Voter dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory complicates Harris’s campaign further. With less than one-third of respondents believing the nation is headed in the right direction, Harris is faced with the difficult task of proving she is the leader who can correct course. Efforts to frame Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, as “extreme” have not had the intended effect. Only 32% of voters see Trump as “too conservative,” while 47% consider Harris “too liberal,” making it an uphill climb for her to broaden her appeal.
While Harris’s strongest issue appears to be her stance on abortion, even this area may not provide a safe harbor. The poll indicates that 16% of Democrats and nearly half of independents do not believe Trump would push for a federal abortion ban, despite Harris’s claims to the contrary. This further weakens her ability to rally support on an issue that has traditionally been a strong point for Democrats.
The polling data highlights a growing disconnect between Harris and the electorate. Voters are seeking a candidate who represents a clear break from the status quo, yet many do not see Harris as that leader. As Trump continues to gain ground, Harris must find a way to convince voters that she can deliver the substantial change they are demanding.
