As the 2024 presidential race heats up, CNN’s top polling analyst Harry Enten provided a critical analysis that challenges the current narrative surrounding the contest. Despite polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading over former President Donald Trump, Enten cautioned against counting Trump out, citing a history of polling inaccuracies that have consistently underestimated his support.
During a segment on Tuesday, Enten reflected on polling data from the 2016 and 2020 elections, where Trump was significantly underestimated in key battleground states. “In 2016, the average poll in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin underestimated Trump’s support by nine points,” Enten explained. “Even in 2020, Trump was still underestimated by an average of five points in these crucial states.”
Enten pointed out that Harris’s lead over Trump in these battleground states is currently four points—a margin narrower than the average polling error in previous elections. This suggests that if history repeats itself, Trump could outperform expectations and potentially win those states. “If we see a similar polling shift to what we’ve seen in prior years, Donald Trump would actually win,” Enten stated. “He is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now.”
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
Adding to this analysis, Enten noted that while Harris currently enjoys momentum and enthusiasm among her supporters, this does not necessarily translate into voter turnout. Polls indicate that the number of voters who say they are certain to vote for Harris is slightly lower than those who said the same for President Biden at this point in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump has seen an increase in the number of voters who are committed to casting their ballots for him.
The analyst also highlighted a significant shift in Trump’s popularity. “Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13th in either 2020 or 2016,” Enten observed. This increase in popularity suggests that Trump’s base remains energized and that his support may be even stronger than it was in previous elections.
As the 2024 election approaches, Enten’s analysis serves as a reminder that polling data is not always a reliable predictor of electoral outcomes. With Trump’s history of defying poll predictions and his growing popularity, the race is far from over. The final outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout and the ability of each campaign to mobilize its base, making the next few months critical for both candidates.
