Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential win marked a pivotal moment in U.S. politics, with significant gains among Hispanic and black voters redefining traditional party lines. Data from GOP polling group Cygnal revealed that Hispanic voters shifted 24 points in Trump’s favor compared to the 2020 election, cutting the Democratic lead from 33 points to just 9. Similarly, black voters moved 16 points toward Trump, reducing the Democratic advantage from a 75-point gap to 59 points over the past four years.
These gains came against the backdrop of intense national debates on cultural issues such as sex-change procedures for minors and transgender participation in female sports, which resonated with many voters. According to Cygnal’s president Brent Buchanan, Democrats’ emphasis on identity politics and “woke ideology” alienated many minority voters, while Trump’s messaging appealed to those seeking “normalcy.” Buchanan observed that these cultural issues were key drivers in the dramatic voter shifts.
Trump’s gains were not limited to minority voters. His support among non-college-educated voters also surged, deepening the so-called “diploma divide.” In 2020, Trump held a slim 2-point lead with this group, but by 2024, his lead expanded to a commanding 16 points. This trend further solidifies a growing divide in American politics, where college-educated voters lean Democratic, while those without degrees increasingly favor Republicans.
Trump also capitalized on a shift in how Americans consume news, bypassing traditional media in favor of alternative platforms. Cygnal’s polling showed stark contrasts in voter preferences based on media consumption. Voters who relied on national news networks like CBS and NBC heavily favored Kamala Harris, while Trump dominated among those consuming talk radio, podcasts, and web streams. “Trump really bypassed the mainstream media and went to all these alternative media sources,” Buchanan explained, noting that these platforms resonated particularly well with men and did not alienate female voters.
The rejection of establishment media signals a broader transformation in political communication. Buchanan noted that legacy outlets often “tell people what to think” rather than presenting balanced information, driving voters toward platforms that encourage independent thought. This trend has significant implications for future campaigns as candidates adapt to a fragmented media landscape.
The results of the 2024 election pose critical questions for the Democratic Party. Buchanan highlighted that Democrats must confront their narrowing coalition, which increasingly relies on coastal, white, college-educated elites. He questioned whether the party can bridge the gap with working-class and minority voters, noting that their progressive wing may resist such changes.
For Republicans, the challenge lies in consolidating Trump’s gains among minority voters. Buchanan emphasized the importance of building long-term relationships with these communities, rather than relying solely on election-day outreach. “They moved to Trump. They did not move to Republicans,” he cautioned, stressing the need for sustained engagement and effective communication on both cultural and economic issues.
As the political landscape evolves, the 2024 election underscores the growing influence of cultural debates and alternative media. Trump’s ability to connect with minority voters and bypass traditional channels reflects broader shifts in voter priorities and the importance of authenticity in political messaging.
