Voter Sentiment Shifts in Pennsylvania: Trump Narrows Gap Ahead of 2024 Election

Gage Skidmore


Recent polling in Pennsylvania indicates a significant shift toward former President Donald Trump, showcasing his growing support in this critical battleground state. The data reveals a narrowing gap between Trump and President Joe Biden, presenting potential challenges for the Biden campaign.

Why It Matters

The evolving voter preferences in Pennsylvania highlight concerns about economic issues and presidential performance, crucial factors for American citizens.

Who It Impacts

This polling impacts Pennsylvania voters, influencing their perceptions and decisions in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

Recent polling from the Commonwealth Foundation has revealed a noteworthy shift in voter sentiment in Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state for the 2024 presidential election. Conducted between June 14-19 with 800 registered voters, the survey shows that 47% of respondents would vote for the Republican candidate, while 48% would choose the Democratic candidate. This represents a significant improvement for former President Donald Trump compared to the Commonwealth Foundation’s March poll, which showed Democrats leading 51% to 44%.

The new poll, conducted before last week’s debate, signals increasing trouble for President Joe Biden’s campaign. While other prominent Democrats in Pennsylvania maintain high favorability, Biden’s approval rating has dropped three points. Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), up for re-election this year, boasts a +14 favorability rating and leads Republican candidate David McCormick by 12 points. Similarly, Senator John Fetterman (D-PA), elected in 2022, enjoys a +11 favorability rating. In contrast, President Biden’s favorability among Pennsylvanians is underwater by 12 points.

Further bolstering Trump’s position, a Cygnal poll taken last week indicates a preference for the Republican presidential candidate over the Democratic candidate among likely voters, with a margin of 47.3% to 44.7%. Notably, “swing voters” also lean towards the GOP candidate by nearly four points, though 40% remain undecided about their choice for November.

These findings come ahead of the first 2024 debate between Biden and Trump, which was widely perceived as disastrous for the president. A CNN survey of debate watchers revealed that 67% believe Trump won, while only 33% thought Biden performed better. This performance has sparked concern among left-leaning commentators and some Democrats, who are questioning whether Biden should continue his campaign or step aside for another candidate.

The Commonwealth Foundation poll also highlights voter priorities in Pennsylvania. Inflation and the cost of living were ranked as the top issues by 20% of registered voters, followed by immigration and border security at 10%, and the economy at 9%. In contrast, only 5% of respondents considered abortion the most pressing issue, despite its prominence in Democratic campaign strategies.

Pennsylvania played a crucial role in Trump’s 2016 victory and was key to Biden’s win four years later. As of Tuesday morning, Trump holds a three-point lead over Biden in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, underscoring the state’s significance in the upcoming election.