Overview
Former President Donald Trump experienced a slight increase in support following his recent felony conviction. Despite a small lead over President Joe Biden in the latest polls, the conviction has notably impacted Trump’s public image and campaign dynamics.
Why It Matters
This issue highlights the intersection of legal proceedings and political campaigns, affecting the trust and choices of American voters.
Who It Impacts
The outcome of this situation influences U.S. voters, particularly those concerned with leadership integrity and the judicial process.
In the aftermath of his recent felony conviction, former President Donald Trump has seen a slight uptick in support, according to a new poll. A Morning Consult survey conducted between May 31 and June 2, immediately following the guilty verdict, shows Trump leading President Joe Biden by one percentage point, 44% to 43%. This is a reversal from a previous poll conducted solely on May 31, where Biden led by the same margin. Prior to the conviction, Trump had a two-point lead over Biden.
Despite this small gain, Morning Consult’s analysis suggests the conviction has taken a toll on Trump’s public image. The pollster noted that Biden’s net favorability rating has consistently surpassed Trump’s for five consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since April 2023. This trend coincides with the escalation of legal proceedings against Trump. Notably, 49% of independent voters believe Trump should withdraw from the presidential race following the conviction, with 15% of Republicans echoing this sentiment.
Cameron Easley, a Morning Consult analyst, highlighted on social media that Trump’s “net buzz” rating—reflecting media coverage and public discourse—has plummeted to its lowest point since August 2023, when his mugshot was taken in a separate case in Fulton County, Georgia. Easley pointed out that there has been little shift in support among key demographics inclined to back Trump, including Black and Hispanic voters and individuals under 35.
Further insights from a Daily Mail poll conducted by JL Partners revealed that 22% of voters now view Trump more favorably post-conviction, compared to 16% who view him less favorably. A Reuters-Ipsos poll indicated that 25% of independent voters are less likely to vote for Trump due to the conviction, while 18% are more likely to support him. However, the majority of independents stated the conviction would not influence their vote in the upcoming election.
The conviction, which occurred on May 30, involved 34 counts of falsifying business records, linked to alleged hush money payments during the 2016 presidential campaign. Trump, who pleaded not guilty and labeled the charges as politically motivated, faces a potential prison sentence of up to four years. However, some legal experts, including former Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr., suggest a prison term is unlikely.
Following the verdict, Trump announced plans to appeal the conviction, potentially taking the case to the U.S. Supreme Court. He expressed hope for the Supreme Court’s intervention before his sentencing on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention. In a Truth Social post on June 2, Trump reiterated his criticism of the judge and called for Supreme Court involvement.
Despite the legal challenges, Trump’s campaign reported a significant fundraising surge, raising $53 million within 24 hours of the conviction announcement. Campaign officials Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita stated that this momentum reflects widespread dissatisfaction with what they describe as the politicization of the legal system. They asserted that the real verdict would be rendered by the American people in the November 2024 election.
