Overview
Recent polls indicate former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the run-up to the November elections, with a noticeable impact from third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This lead is significant across several polls and key battleground states, reflecting shifting voter dynamics.
Why It Matters
The polling trends highlight a critical juncture in American politics, emphasizing the importance of voter sentiment and electoral strategies in shaping the nation’s future.
Who It Impacts
These trends affect all American voters, particularly those in key swing states and minority communities, as their votes could determine the outcome of the election.
Trump Leads Biden in Polls as Election Nears
Recent polling data reveals a consistent lead for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden as the 2024 presidential election approaches. According to a Harvard/Harris poll conducted from May 15-19, Trump would secure 47 percent of the vote if the election were held today, compared to Biden’s 36 percent. This lead narrows slightly to eight percentage points with the inclusion of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Echelon Insights also reported Trump at 49 percent, leading Biden by three points, with the gap widening to five points when RFK Jr. is considered.
Rasmussen Reports echoed these findings, showing Trump with 46 percent of likely voter support in a three-way race, leading Biden by 10 percentage points. A Morning Consult poll from May 20 depicted a tighter contest, with Trump leading Biden by a single percentage point, 44 to 43 percent. “Trump leads Biden by 1 percentage point in our latest tracking,” Morning Consult noted, highlighting a closer race than earlier in the campaign.
Despite Trump’s lead, President Biden has maintained a slight edge in popularity ratings. For three consecutive weeks, Biden’s net favorability has surpassed Trump’s, marking the longest such stretch since April 2023. Betting markets also reflect this trend, with Polymarket indicating a 55 percent chance of Trump winning a second term, leading Biden by 14 percentage points.
Swing State Dynamics
In crucial battleground states, Trump appears to be gaining ground. RealClear Polling’s average of multiple surveys shows Trump leading in all seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump’s largest lead is in Nevada at 6.2 points, followed by North Carolina with 5.4 points, Arizona with 5.2 points, and Georgia with 4.6 points. Emerson College Polling’s executive director, Spencer Kimball, noted that undecided voters have decreased while Biden has gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap slightly.
The Epoch Times’ analysis of Q1 2024 election polls reinforces Trump’s lead in swing states. Trafalgar Group’s head pollster, Robert Cahaly, emphasized the increasing visibility of “hidden voters” who support Trump but previously remained silent. This year, these voters are more vocal, contributing to Trump’s polling advantage.
Minority Voter Support
Trump is also experiencing increased support among minority groups, including black and Hispanic voters. A February Gallup survey indicated that while Democrats still hold majority support among these demographics, their lead has significantly diminished. The Democratic Party’s lead among black Americans has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years, with similar trends observed among Hispanic adults and younger voters.
Despite these shifts, prominent Democrats like Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) assert that Biden maintains strong support within the black community. “Joe Biden is as strong with African Americans as he has ever been,” Clyburn stated. However, Southern Methodist University professor Matthew Wilson pointed out that the changing preferences of minority voters are evident across multiple surveys and electoral results, challenging the notion that these shifts are artificial.
During a speech on May 17, President Biden criticized Republicans for allegedly targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. “My predecessor and his extreme MAGA friends are now going after diversity, equity, and inclusion all across America,” Biden said, accusing them of wanting “a country for some, not for all.”
The current polling trends underscore a significant shift in voter dynamics, particularly among key demographics and battleground states. These developments suggest a highly competitive race as the 2024 election approaches, with both candidates needing to address the concerns and priorities of a diverse electorate.
