Trump’s Dominance in GOP Primary Soars as DeSantis Slips, RCP Polls Show

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The latest Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average reveals that former President Donald Trump’s dominance in the Republican primary has surged even further.

Since declaring his intention to run in November 2022, Trump has maintained a significant lead, now reaching a peak of 58.8% amidst a plethora of GOP contenders. His nearest competitor, Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis, lags behind by almost 50 points, registering at 12.5%. DeSantis’ standing has dipped by over ten points since the beginning of June. Following them in the race are tech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.5%, ex-Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley with 5.0%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 4.1%, and both ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina tied at 2.3%. Both North Dakota’s Governor Doug Burgum and ex-Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, despite participating in the initial GOP debate, are polling under 1%.

Recent polls from Emerson, Yahoo News, and Morning Consult all place Trump at a consistent 59%. Earlier surveys from Harvard-Harris and Economist/YouGov recorded Trump at 57% and 55%, respectively. DeSantis’ most favorable national rating was 16% in the Economist/YouGov poll. Ramaswamy reached 10% in the Morning Consult survey and was closely behind DeSantis in the Harvard-Harris poll.

In a potential face-off against current President Joe Biden, Trump edges ahead with 45.1% to Biden’s 44.6%. Trump’s choice to forgo the inaugural Republican debate hasn’t impacted his national polling figures. He’s also set to miss the upcoming debate, choosing instead to address auto workers on strike in Detroit.

Trump’s recent remarks on abortion have drawn conservative ire. In a conversation with journalist Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” Trump expressed his belief that the six-week abortion bans, or “heartbeat bills,” enacted by Republican states were “a terrible mistake.”

Despite his commanding national lead, Trump’s support in Iowa, the GOP primary’s inaugural caucus state, is below the 50% mark. The latest RCP average positions Trump at 46.0% in Iowa, with DeSantis trailing at 15.8%. Scott and Haley have seen a surge in Iowa, securing third and fourth places with 9.0% and 7.0%, respectively. Other contenders like Ramaswamy, Pence, Christie, and Burgum have also made their mark in the state, each polling above 2%.